Jupiter Predictions

[Amanda Kimmel]

ROUND EIGHT

THE FABULOUS FIVE is in total control. J.T., Todd, Brett, Ian, and Eliza. They have both HIIs and Paloma. They are, essentially, golden.

Right now, Courtney is obviously a goner. But after that... they are clearly going after Aras and Rob in the next two rounds. Which goes first is unknown at this point. From my experiences, neither of them are very bright.

So, from here, the next few rounds are obvious. Courtney goes this round. Aras and Rob follow in some order, then Ozzy is likely gone. Of course, around this time is when Eliza starts to get suspicious about her alliance's intentions - she's in fifth with them - and one of two things happens:
1. She teams up with Paloma, Ozzy, and Ian at the final 7 to blindside J.T. and send everyone into a tizzy. If that happens, it is anyone's game.
2. Eliza gets caught in the act and Ian blabs to J.T. and Todd. They proceed to blnidside Eliza.

Of course, that's a few weeks off. But since the first two are very predictable, there's not much to go on here. Courtney is easily gone this week. But since Ian and Brett are packing HIIs, it is who they tell that will make all the difference. If Eliza realizes she's out of the loop... she's the type to do something about it. But right now, I see her sticking with THE FABULOUS FIVE. I wonder if Paloma might figure it out... but she'd be powerless unless there's a struggle. We shall see.

[Charity Slater]

I'm excited to see Eliza play at merge. I've played with her before and she's definitely somebody to watch out for. She tends to play hard, and has orchestrated some of the most amazing moves I have ever seen out of somebody.

Paloma is obviously one of the smarter ones in the game so I'm wondering if she will catch on to what is going on. If she does, I can see her trying to get Eliza to help her come up with some sort of plan. Those two girls def won't go down without a fight.

[Amanda Kimmel]

Eliza will be fun. And Courtney was indeed a goner.


ROUND NINE:

Either Rob or Aras is a goner this time. It's too early for someone to start a "KILL JT" movement. The rest of the FABULOUS FIVE need to get rid of Rob and Aras first.

So, as of right now, a feasible boot order is this:

Rob/Aras
Aras/Rob
JT
Ozzy
Paloma
Eliza

FINAL THREE:
3rd: Brett
2nd: Ian
1st: Todd


The FABULOUS FIVE gets rid of their two targets first, then they blindside JT because he's a huge all-around threat. Ozzy and Paloma are easily discarded after that. The three men then stick together and boot the ruthless Eliza, then face the final three where the vote is mainly split between Todd and Ian. Todd wins based on experience from season 1 and not burning bridges with the jury with the exception of JT, who is angry with everyone.


That's where I stand right now, but this is Survivor. Things can and will change.

As for right now... it's unclear which of the two, but it's Rob or Aras going bye-bye. My bet goes with Aras given how they blasted him in the challenge.

[Amanda Kimmel]

So it looks like they're going to try to kill JT now after all... it's a bit too early to if you ask me, but it might work wonders for them. Aras and Rob are still around to be on board. Ian will do it. Ozzy is definitely with them.

Paloma + Aras + Rob + Ian + Ozzy

That's 5. Bye-bye FABULOUS FIVE. Looks like I have something new to predict.

[Amanda Kimmel]

Do I even need to say it? Rob goes this round.

[Amanda Kimmel]

Why is Eliza so arrogant and oblivious? She doesn't seem to understand that JT-Todd-Brett were an alliance from like the first round. She honestly expects to completely take one of their places in the final three?

Eliza hasn't made a game-breaking move and is just being used. She has no shot of beating both JT AND Todd. If she takes one of them out, THEN she has a shot. And she just blew what was likely her last chance to do it.

Paloma is gone next round unless she pulls out another immunity win. If Paloma wins immunity again - and I know she's capable of it - then Eliza is a goner. She's going to bitch everyone out since she didn't get her way. In the end... Eliza's oblivious to that she's being used. She's not making the finals.

And I am curious, actually. Who needs to grow up more: Eliza or Tyson?

[Amanda Kimmel]

FINAL SIX


Paloma is gone now. The FABULOUS FIVE is still in control.

Next week... I'm guessing Ian goes. They know he's playing both sides and they will suspect that he was the vote for JT. Which he was.

After that... the final three will include JT and Todd and either Brett or Eliza. Both seem convinced that they're in the final three with those two guys and that the other isn't. It is in the best interest of the two guys to keep Eliza, since she'd blow up at them at the FTC if they ditched her. Brett, though, is very easy to beat. JT and Todd may have to turn on each other for their "big move."

So this week is as easy as last week. The final five isn't easy to predict... we will see what happens!

[Amanda Kimmel]

Two words:

Bye Ian.

Eliza has immunity and is too stubborn to budge. JT wants Ian out, too - Todd and Brett aren't going to team with Ian to "KILL JT" even though now is the last chance to do so.

Basically... JT seems to be getting a free pass to the finals. He's taking Todd and Brett with him and winning.

[Amanda Kimmel]

Nobody has immunity. That means that this can and will be interesting.

Eliza and Brett will most likely vote for each other unless Brett decides to blindside J.T. Brett most likely won't, though - he doesn't have the numbers.

This therefore boils down to what J.T. and Todd decide. Will they take Eliza or Brett with them? They've had F3 alliances with both for a long time - well, Brett since the start, Eliza since the swap.

Brett has done nothing in this game but ride coattails. He also requested to be voted out last round because of that. He's not a serious player and will probably be forgotten at the FTC, perhaps gaining one jury vote at most - that of someone angry at J.T. and Todd (most likely Eliza in this case). Will they honor his asking last round? Or will they take him as someone they can beat? Last season, Todd and I wanted to take Shii Ann since we could beat her. We beat her. However, J.T. is a lot more arrogant than I am - I even thought I had blown it at the FTC. So I can see them voting out Brett thinking that they'll still win anyway.


Eliza is loud. If she gets voted out, she will rip into both boys with her claws and tear their hearts out. It would be a far more interesting FTC and the guys likely know that. Of course, Tonga will play a part here, considering that Eliza and Todd are both on Vai (and so are you, Charity). If you make the Damien angry, you won't like it. Todd and J.T. made a final three deal with Eliza, which they may choose to honor out of arrogance. They may also think of her as a bigger threat and get rid of her, only for her to make them both look really bad at the FTC.


There are many things to consider, but one thing is certain: J.T. and Todd 100% control this vote. They won't turn on each other but they will turn on someone. My guess is that they get rid of Brett because Brett wanted to go last round since he doesn't think he deserves it. He's an easy boot who won't turn on them at the FTC. In fact, they might vote him out simply because he would vote for one of them.




As for a winner...
Courtney -
Aras -
Ozzy - J.T.
Rob - NOT Eliza or Brett
Paloma - J.T.
Ian - Todd

Potential final jurors:
Brett - J.T.
Eliza - Brett


Ian's is the easiest since he already pretty much voted. Some of these will depend on the FTC. Courtney might not even vote at all...

So at this point, Eliza is more likely to get votes than Brett. She can make an argument to sway Courtney or Aras and maybe even Rob or Ozzy. Brett can only get Eliza's vote since he has no arguments to make.

J.T. and Todd really should take Brett with them. Will they? Only time will tell. Oh, and Todd will, too:
Outplayer17 (2:23:29 PM): OMG IDK WHAT TO DO
zZAndymaNZz (2:23:39 PM): Galapagos?
Outplayer17 (2:23:43 PM): Yeah
zZAndymaNZz (2:24:07 PM): I cannot offer advice. I just finished my situation analysis in the PW forum. Working on pre-FTC stuff now.
Outplayer17 (2:24:19 PM): I can't wait to read it !
Outplayer17 (2:25:38 PM): I LOVE Eliza
Outplayer17 (2:25:47 PM): But we've had the guys alliance from Day One
zZAndymaNZz (2:26:27 PM): I can't tell you what to do.
Outplayer17 (2:26:33 PM): I know
zZAndymaNZz (2:26:49 PM): I can tell you that I have the situation figured out and the arguments for both sides.
Outplayer17 (2:27:09 PM): Do you know what the best move is ?
zZAndymaNZz (2:27:17 PM): I can't say.
Outplayer17 (2:27:29 PM): I think Brett would be easier to beat..
Outplayer17 (2:28:15 PM): What if its a tie ??
zZAndymaNZz (2:28:34 PM): Not sure yet, but it'd go to a challenge I think
Outplayer17 (2:28:54 PM): Eliza would beat Brett in a challenge
zZAndymaNZz (2:31:21 PM): Perhaps you should force a tie and have that determine who'd be most deserving? I dunno.
Outplayer17 (2:31:44 PM): I wanna vote Eliza cause I don't think Brett will win


At this point... I don't know what'll happen. I'm starting to change my mind already and I'm thinking that Eliza is gone just like Rob congratulated her on.

[Amanda Kimmel]

Much like at the pageant, I'm going to have to hand my crown off to someone. So right now, I think it's best to determine who it is - we need the jury to fire the grill up, so while we wait...


Courtney - ?
Will she even be here? I honestly don't even remember there being a Courtney in this game. She did NOTHING. So there's no telling who she'll vote for - or if she'll even show up at all.


Aras - ?
We all know him. However, he's unpredictable. His flaming Todd in the Rite of Passage was telling - he's not voting for Todd. After that, I have no idea. He's probably really mad at Damien since Damien is really mad at him. But will he vote for Damien anyway? I dunno. He's unpredictable.


Ozzy - J.T.
Todd played an HII and Ozzy feels that those are cheap. Eliza was too stupid to go with him, or so he thinks. Chances are he's voting for J.T. without much of a question.


Rob - J.T.
He's probably surprised that Eliza is in the final three, but Brett blew himself up. Rob isn't voting for Eliza since she got lucky and he thinks she played a really poor game, even more so than Ozzy. This leaves it down to J.T. and Todd. I think Rob thinks of J.T. as the "leader" and would probably vote for him based on that, but I could be wrong - he might be swayable.


Paloma - J.T.
Paloma is mad at Eliza also. Why wouldn't she be? I think she thinks more highly of J.T. than Todd, so that's yet another vote for J.T.


Ian - Todd
This has been confirmed. Todd told Ian that he was going. That's what friends are for, right? Todd's getting Ian's vote for being honest with him. I foresee those two as still being friends and probably working together in Tonga. You'd know more, though, Charity, since you're on that tribe too!


Brett - Todd
J.T. voted for Brett and didn't tell him. Brett self-voted though, possibly to help Eliza out. However, I think he's voting for one of his longtime allies and the tiebreaker here is who knifed him.


If Aras votes for J.T., J.T. wins and Courtney's (?) vote doesn't matter... if it's even cast at all.



ALL-STARS:
Courtney - lol no
Aras - Maybe
Ozzy - For sure. He was the biggest schemer.
Rob - Maybe
Paloma - Yeah. Good competitor. Fought hard.
Ian - No question. He was playing both sides and definitely got the Villain edit.
Brett - Nope. He didn't talk much and he didn't make any moves.
Todd - He already made it as Erinn
Eliza - Highly likely. She's in the final three and has a hilarious confessional. Plus she intended on sticking to an alliance she thought was true to her. I'd be a lot different than these guys.
J.T. - If he wins, he's in 100%. If he doesn't, it comes down to the FTC. He had a pretty easy ride, though, so I'd likely put him in.

J.T., ELIZA, IAN, PALOMA, OZZY

and if we want six, one more out of Aras/Rob.

[Amanda Kimmel]

Going back over everything, J.T. and Todd seem to think they're more hated than they actually are. Eliza's hated too!

I may be way wrong. But we'll see.

[Amanda Kimmel]

Scratch Paloma for All-Star since she didn't show up for the FTC

I say put Aras in instead, since he seems to have been more of a threat than we gave him credit for.

[Charity Slater]

Sept 16, 2010 11:28:41 GMT -5 Amanda Kimmel said:

Scratch Paloma for All-Star since she didn't show up for the FTC

I say put Aras in instead, since he seems to have been more of a threat than we gave him credit for.

I think he's a good choice. I'm going to try and get ahold of Paloma and Courtney and see if they're going to come around.