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Post by Amanda Kimmel on Aug 9, 2010 16:31:01 GMT -5
And here I thought Mars did awful in the challenge...
ROUND ONE:
Natalie screwed up royally, but I honestly think they'll go after one of their lesser active players, perhaps Heidi or Paloma. Monica and Sandra should be secure this round, though the former is completely oblivious to that she's just being used by the latter. This will not play a factor at all this round, however, given that the priority right now is to keep the tribe strong.
Monica has clearly set herself up for a huge fall around the time of the merge, especially given that she is emerging as a leader and has a huge target on her back already, given her title of "Thundercunt" given to her by Natalie in Samoa.
So, given the current situation, Natalie is in danger, but Monica claims to have "saved her ass." I don't know what Monica is thinking since Natalie is her enemy. Monica is only setting herself up the bomb for later on. Her best bet would be to grab two people like Courtney and Denise for her threesome, since Sandra and Natalie will discard her in a heartbeat. I am uncertain where Eliza and Michelle fit into this equation, but I assume they are floaters like Courtney and Denise. Clear alliances will begin to develop in a very short span of time.
So, quick recap: Courtney - Probably safe. She's less active than some of the others but more active than some of the other others. Denise - Not sure. I have no reads on her at this point and little idea what her tribemates think of her. Eliza - I think she's in the middle of everything, but based on what I've heard, she's a lethal player. If her name comes up for inactivity - I don't know why it would given her confessional - she'll fix it. Heidi - In trouble. She's done very little from what I can see. Michelle - Not a clue. She's posted about the challenge so I assume she was a part of that. Meaning she'd probably be safe. Monica - Not going anywhere... this round. I can easily see her getting blindsided at Venus's next Tribal, but right now they have to keep the tribe strong for now and Monica will help that cause. Natalie - In trouble since she blew the challenge. However, she is active and has an alliance that I'm not completely sure she wants to be a part of. Paloma - In trouble. She hasn't done much but she has posted a bit. I think they might be willing to keep her around since she's trying to get involved. Sandra - Going nowhere. She's got a sharp mind and an ally who thinks the world of her... and she isn't ready to dispose of said "Thundercunt" yet.
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Post by Amanda Kimmel on Aug 9, 2010 23:55:16 GMT -5
Change of plans... Monica is becoming a target because of Natalie. Monica's told everyone about her Eve power... so they might be voting for her even though she's strong at challenges. I thought they'd save booting her for later... guess I was wrong.
This Monica-Natalie war will never be over.
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Post by Amanda Kimmel on Aug 10, 2010 13:26:40 GMT -5
Looks like Monica way overplayed her hand. A lot of people are against her since she just came in this game thinking she's the princess. I don't like her one bit and am glad that she's going first. The votes are shaping up to be the following: Courtney - Eliza Denise - Monica Eliza - ? Heidi - ? Michelle - Eliza Monica - Natalie Monica - Natalie Natalie - Monica Paloma - Monica Sandra - Monica
If Eliza does self-vote, Heidi can force a tie. We'd have to go to a tiebreaker... which I'd say means Eliza goes regardless. We could just remove her if she self-voted.
But if Heidi votes for Monica, Monica goes with a 5-3-2 vote with only Monica voting for Natalie. Monica thinks she has this entire game in the bag already... and it's angering everyone, including me.
I HOPE that Monica goes and I think she will. All Eliza has to do is not self-vote (I doubt she will). Heidi... might self-vote too. I have no idea where those two stand since they're the least active here. But if we votes were read now, Monica's gone. Heidi will probably vote Monica. Eliza will probably vote Natalie... 5-3-2 again.
Yeah, it looks like Monica has sealed her own fate with the "1337 54M04N PR1NC355" attitude when, in reality, she's "The Thundercunt." Someone's going to have a talking to after being voted out, that's for sure.
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Post by Amanda Kimmel on Aug 10, 2010 15:43:12 GMT -5
hmm, Michelle decided to vote for Monica. Doesn't change who's a goner... in fact, it pretty much makes it official at this point given that there are 5 votes and a 2-1 split.
Initial round 1 prediction: Way wrong.
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Post by Amanda Kimmel on Aug 12, 2010 14:30:52 GMT -5
ROUND TWO
Dear lord, this tribe is a complete TRAIN WRECK. Nobody's even talked about throwing the challenge, yet they clearly ARE throwing the challenge through their own laziness. Sandra pretending she doesn't know what to do is too funny - I know she knows how to do it. But do the others? Probably not, she's playing alias.
Eliza has likely saved herself by actually posting in the challenge. At this point, over half of these girls have NOT posted there. Michelle is clearly angered by this and seems to be taking a leadership role, even after what happened to little miss Monica (using brown as a color for the fallen). Monica, though, just assumed she was in charge upon coming here and with that arrogant attitude, she created a huge mess. This tribe is hopeless unless they have a leader. I honestly hope they realize that and Michelle doesn't screw herself by actually attempting in the challenge and trying to get her tribe a win. If they blindside Michelle, this tribe will be Ulong all over again. Meaning they'll keep losing.
Venus Ulong
Hmmm... not as close as I thought.
Assuming the likely case that Venus gets slaughtered in this challenge, the two in the most danger of going home are easily Heidi and Courtney. Heidi for being relatively worthless in challenges and not really communicating and Courtney for angering Sandra last round. However, Courtney is no strategic threat to Sandra. Courtney really messed up by not going for the HII clue with the rest of the tribe, the latter part being more important. Thus, Courtney is on the outs. Sandra also has the power of Eve but clearly learned from Monica to keep her trap shut. I don't see her going anywhere unless some of the other girls deduce from Monica's messages - which Michelle has already shared with us - that Sandra has it. If they're playing the "get rid of Eve and get the HII clues" card, whoever gets Eve gets screwed, so people might start giving it to their enemies. I love it.
As of right now, I assume that Paloma will follow the majority. Natalie will want to take charge and butt heads with Sandra somewhere down the line, and I can see that escalating since Sandra knows who Natalie is but the reverse is not true. I have no real comments about Denise other than that she's pretty useless. If Venus keeps losing, she won't last. We may have to have a tribe swap earlier than expected if the tribes become too uneven. Which they very well might - Venus is a disaster. Mars is easily going to steamroll them at the current rate. Pretty obvious that Brady is going home at the Double TC next round... all of the interest here is with Venus THIS round, where it's up in the air between Courtney, Heidi, and even Eliza. Unless someone else disappears in that time or incurs the wrath of the mouthy, one of those three will likely go home next round, too.
POWER RANKINGS:
8. Courtney - Sandra is angry at her for blabbing to Monica. Courtney has no pull with Sandra's apparent "alliance." 7. Heidi - Not trying. Shows up randomly to post something random. Doesn't post in her confessional. She's in hot water unless she tries to integrate herself. 6. Eliza - Is trying to make up for last round. The problem? Last round. 5. Denise - Probably just the typical loyal sheep that the actual Denise essentially was. Will do as told. 4. Paloma - Merely wants to be with the majority. Is laying low and isn't in power. She seems to want it that way. 3. Natalie - Got her wish to dispatch Monica and is clearly part of running the alliance, but given her lack of confessionals, I assume she's playing it a bit low right now. 2. Michelle - Is trying to step up to be leader. Was the swing vote last round. She has potential to go far... or get blindsided just before the merge. Right now, she's in a good spot. This tribe needs a leader and they should know it. 1. Sandra - Who else? She led the charge in blindsiding Monica. She has pull. She has the attitude and determination. She may have been extremely mouthy last season, but this time around, she ain't one to mess with. Sandra is running this tribe's strategic game. Of course, if Natalie got wind of that...
PREDICTION: Heidi goes home this round, since she'll harm them more in challenges than Courtney, who is established to be on the outs and can easily be discarded at the Double TC next round. Right now, Venus needs to focus on winning challenges and being a stronger tribe. Though I really don't know how they'll be going about that... Mars is by far the superior tribe at this point. It's like... not even close.
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Post by Tyson Apostol on Aug 12, 2010 14:43:31 GMT -5
Ewww!
Why is Denise a Vixen? And who would pick to play as her? DISCUSTING!!!
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Post by Amanda Kimmel on Aug 12, 2010 14:48:00 GMT -5
Ewww! Why is Denise a Vixen? And who would pick to play as her? DISCUSTING!!! I have no idea why someone would play as Denise. And the "Vixen" label is just for all the females... even those that aren't voluptuous. I honestly hope that Denise doesn't last for the very reason that she is Denise. All she's good for is to be a lapdog.
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Post by Tyson Apostol on Aug 12, 2010 16:25:06 GMT -5
Basically....
I'd have more to write about but I can't see anything....so..... Yeah, don't know what people are writing, and I can only view this board haha
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Post by Charity Slater on Aug 12, 2010 23:41:52 GMT -5
Sorry Tyson, giving you access now I love Paloma's TC answer.
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Post by Amanda Kimmel on Aug 14, 2010 10:40:01 GMT -5
Initial round 2 prediction: Way right.
At the double TC... I will get to that later.
We also need to get Tyson an avatar.
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Post by Amanda Kimmel on Aug 15, 2010 22:28:55 GMT -5
ROUND THREE:
Sandra has immunity. She needed it. Why? This way, she can get away with murder. Her intended victim? Michelle.
The tribe will clearly turn against Sandra in the same way they turned against Monica. Monica started shit and Sandra is definitely going the same route. However, Michelle is quite valuable since she actually spearheaded the Dress Up challenge. I don't see the rest of the tribe agreeing with Sandra. Denise passed the Eve power to Michelle, after all. Sandra isn't just going to get her way like her ego is telling her she is.
At this point, I can see Eliza possibly voting for Michelle, but I can also see Paloma and Denise thinking that Sandra is crazy to want to get rid of one of the strongest people on their tribe. Sandra will probably screw herself over and go home next round. She's already digging herself a hole, Monica-style.
I can see the girls ganging up on Courtney or Natalie, given that they've done the least in challenges. Natalie has dropped off the face of the earth and she is a dangerous player, so I can easily see her being targeted. I don't have many confessionals to go on at this point, though, so anything can happen.
I am pretty sure, though, that Sandra's plot will only screw her over long-term. She's trying to get rid of the only person who stepped up tremendously on the Dress Up challenge - the person that could lead this tribe to victory. If Michelle goes this round, the tribe will be incredibly stupid. I mean, there's not another Heidi in this bunch, but Michelle is a huge asset. Getting rid of her will start an Ulonging streak, resulting in the girls going to every Tribal Council until the swap.
So, in short, Sandra is incredibly stupid to be targeting Michelle over playing the freaking game for an HII clue. It's just one clue, Sandra. You can vote for the person you gave it to - Denise - in the same manner that Michelle did for you. You know who has it, why aren't you doing that in your selfish desire for idol clues?
EARLY PREDICTION: Natalie goes home. 6 votes Natalie, 2 votes Michelle. Sandra goes ballistic and goes home next round.
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Post by Charity Slater on Aug 15, 2010 23:02:41 GMT -5
I was IMing Eliza earlier, mainly to yell at her for not doing the challenge. That and I enjoy annoying her And she was telling me how she now has an alliance with Michelle, Paloma and Denise. So Michelle might not go after all.
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Post by Amanda Kimmel on Aug 15, 2010 23:05:12 GMT -5
Odd hearing that coming from Eliza, considering that she defied Michelle in the Dress Up challenge when Michelle tried to get them together.
So yeah... they've got the numbers with Eve on their side. They choose who goes - it'll likely be Natalie this round.
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Post by Amanda Kimmel on Aug 18, 2010 19:23:26 GMT -5
Last round's initial prediction: Mostly right. Did not expect the Denise self-votes, otherwise it would have been closer.
ROUND FOUR:
Right now, it looks like it will be either Sandra or Courtney. Paloma, Eliza, Michelle, and Denise are running this show. Those four have no reason not to stick together.
Let's look at our two candidates in more detail: Sandra is lippy, obnoxious, and was 100% sure Michelle was a goner last round. Guess what? Plans changed. Sandra was kept out of the loop, likely because of her Monica-esque attitude. From a pure strategic standpoint, Sandra is a major threat and a major annoyance. Come the tribe swap, she's going to go to the guys to get out whatever girls she can - just to break up that alliance. However, Sandra's strongest perk is that she's fierce in challenges and that's what Venus needs right now.
Courtney, by contrast, is a loner who has never had a solid alliance and has always voted however she wanted to, even ignoring what the majority is voting for when she knows it. She poses no strategic threat to the Fearsome Foursome (they likely know this) and will probably stick to the same strategy during a tribe swap. She doesn't seem to really talk to people, sort of like Heidi or Natalie. Courtney is also completely worthless in challenges. Venus needs more active people. Courtney isn't that person, so that's all the more reason to vote her off.
So there are two routes to take here: Vote off the threat and possibly weaken the already weak tribe or get rid of the least active, least involved player to possibly do better in challenges.
My opinion? Note the "possibly." Venus hasn't always made the best decisions, especially considering the round one hysteria in which Monica showed us why she got the nickname "The Thundercunt." There, people mostly wanted to boot more active people like Monica and Natalie over someone like Heidi who did nothing. Based on this tribe's past, it his highly likely that they will want to get rid of Sandra over Courtney, especially with fears of a tribe swap looming that could screw them over. However, they may also see Sandra as valuable and Courtney as completely worthless - I mean, Courtney won't vote with them anyway and when they have their numbers down tremendously, they need the allies. Neither of their potential targets is a real ally.
So, who goes home? I would personally get rid of the weakest player, Courtney, since she's more likely to be harmful - at least, this is assuming that I know that Courtney was the one voting based solely on her own ideals. However, I see Venus thinking the opposite: Sandra is harmful since she'd flip to break up the Fearsome Foursome. But challenges and the fact that Sandra doesn't vote on her own accord are enough to keep her. The questions that remain are... 1. Does the Fearsome Foursome know that Courtney is doing her own thing and might screw them over? 2. Does the Fearsome Foursome expect a tribe swap next round? 3. Do they think that they can win challenges with Sandra?
There are a lot of things I have yet to confirm. But right now, I see them going after Sandra with the "she's a threat / there will be a tribe swap soon" mindset. Venus will lose the next challenge and get rid of Courtney then. After that, the tribe swap... if we do it. If the tribes are 8-4, how the heck are we going to switch the tribes up? We can't just make one tribe 4 girls and 2 guys - that's not fair to those two guys. Right now... I see us having to make this decision. Venus is even worse than Galu was, but since Galu recovered, especially thanks to your leadership, Charity, Venus can as well. The Fearsome Foursome would have to get rid of Courtney right now and I seriously hope that they do. But I really think that they won't :/
More to come as I learn more!
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Post by Amanda Kimmel on Aug 21, 2010 13:07:06 GMT -5
I got Sandra right. So it's Courtney this week. That's all there is to it, really.
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